KARACHI: Pakistan’s estimated dengue burden increased dramatically between 2012 and 2022, with cases rising from roughly 100,000 to 3.28 million, according to a new study led by researchers at Aga Khan University.
Published in PLOS ONE, the research used laboratory data, healthcare-seeking patterns and statistical modelling to produce national estimates of dengue incidence. The researchers said the findings suggest the actual number of infections has been substantially higher than figures captured through routine surveillance systems.
Sindh recorded the highest estimated burden in 2022, at about 45.63 cases per 1,000 people, corresponding to approximately 2.63 million cases. Adults aged 15 to 49 experienced the most pronounced increase, while Karachi East recorded the highest estimated district-level incidence.
Lead author Dr Zarmeen Nasim said dengue could no longer be considered only a seasonal threat. Although outbreaks continue to intensify following the monsoon, the data indicate increasingly sustained transmission throughout the year. Researchers called for stronger surveillance, mosquito control, vaccination strategies, greater clinical training and consideration of methods such as Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes.