Ryanair has lowered its passenger forecast for the current financial year and is cutting its winter schedule as sharply higher jet fuel prices increase costs across the European aviation industry.
The Irish budget carrier said on Wednesday it now expects to carry 214 million passengers in fiscal 2027, down from its previous forecast of 216 million.
Ryanair said the temporary capacity reduction would limit its exposure to fuel purchases at current market prices during the November-to-March period, when its operations are typically loss-making. Winter passenger numbers are now expected to remain broadly unchanged from the previous year.
The airline estimates the schedule cuts could reduce its winter losses by between €70 million and €100 million, depending on fares and passenger demand.
Jet fuel is currently trading at around $140 a barrel, according to Ryanair, after the conflict in the Middle East pushed global energy prices sharply higher.
Ryanair is relatively insulated from the immediate increase because it has already hedged 80% of its fiscal 2027 fuel requirements at approximately $67 a barrel. The carrier said this gives it considerably greater protection from elevated spot prices than some of its competitors.
Despite reducing its traffic forecast, Ryanair expects to remain profitable for the year, although profit after tax is likely to fall below the record achieved in fiscal 2026. The airline said it was still too early to provide more detailed earnings guidance.
The company also warned that persistently high fuel prices could have broader consequences for European aviation. Short-haul fares could rise materially during the summer 2027 season as carriers pass higher costs on to passengers, while airlines with less extensive fuel hedging could be forced to reduce capacity.
Ryanair suggested some financially weaker and less-hedged competitors could struggle to make it through the coming winter if energy prices remain elevated.
The reduction in winter capacity comes despite continued strong summer demand. Ryanair remains on course to carry more than 145 million passengers this summer, an increase of more than 5% from 138 million a year earlier.
The airline carried 22.2 million passengers in August, up 6% from 21 million in August last year, while its load factor remained unchanged at 96%.
On a rolling 12-month basis, Ryanair carried 214.4 million passengers, up 5%, with its load factor holding steady at 94%.