Oil prices edged lower on Monday amid expectations of increased Russian supplies after US President Donald Trump said Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt attacks on each other’s energy facilities following a diesel-supply deal between Washington and Moscow.
Brent crude futures fell 11 cents, or 0.11%, to $104.61 a barrel by 0627 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude declined 49 cents, or 0.53%, to $91.36 a barrel. Both benchmarks had fallen by more than 1% earlier in the session.
ICE gasoil futures dropped 3% to $1,436 per metric ton after Trump said on Friday that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 metric tons, equivalent to 2.25 million barrels, of diesel to US and global markets.
Trump added that Russia would provide another 500,000 tons in November, followed by a further 1 million tons “immediately thereafter”. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global daily diesel consumption is forecast to approach 29 million barrels.
Trump also announced on Sunday that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an energy ceasefire. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was still awaiting details of the proposed arrangement, while Moscow had not commented on the announcement.
The developments eased some immediate concerns over supply shortages, according to Tim Waterer, chief analyst at KCM Trade.
However, Waterer cautioned that uncertainty remained over the ceasefire’s credibility and durability, adding that oil prices were likely to see only a limited decline without clearer evidence that the agreement would hold.
Meanwhile, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Sunday that member countries should assess whether additional diesel releases were needed. He also urged countries that had not fully delivered their previously pledged supplies to accelerate the remaining releases, prioritising diesel.