US officials increasingly believe China is unlikely to launch an invasion of Taiwan before 2028, despite President Xi Jinping’s directive for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) to be ready for a potential operation by 2027, Reuters reported.
The assessment is based on concerns over delays in China’s military readiness, partly linked to Xi’s sweeping anti-corruption campaign, as well as Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 presidential election, according to two current US officials, a former US official and another person familiar with the matter.
The officials stressed that the 2027 benchmark refers to military preparedness rather than a fixed deadline for an invasion.
Taiwan’s 2028 Election Could Influence Beijing
According to people familiar with US thinking, Beijing may pay close attention to Taiwan’s 2028 election before deciding whether to pursue military action.
Some Chinese officials reportedly hope the election could produce a government more willing to accommodate Beijing’s demands over the island’s political future.
A fourth consecutive victory for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), particularly if President Lai Ching-te wins another term, could increase pressure for a change in Beijing’s approach, the sources said.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has not ruled out the use of force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims and maintains that its future should be decided by its people.