Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva secured a historic fourth term on Sunday, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a presidential runoff that defied opinion polls and surprised financial markets.
According to Brazil’s electoral court, Lula won the election by more than four million votes, overcoming an opponent who had led the first round and was widely expected by investors to emerge victorious.
The result represents another political comeback for the 80-year-old president and interrupts a recent series of right-wing electoral victories across Latin America.
Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, rejected the result and announced plans to seek its annulment.
He challenged a ruling issued by a Supreme Court justice on Sunday that extended voting by two hours.
However, analysts questioned the likelihood of a successful legal challenge, noting that Bolsonaro’s campaign had also requested an extension because of heavy rainfall in Brazil’s conservative-leaning southern regions.
The margin of Lula’s victory was more than twice the margin by which Jair Bolsonaro lost the 2022 presidential election.
Mario Braga, a Latin America analyst at risk consultancy RANE, warned that the disputed result could trigger demonstrations by right-wing supporters.
“It’s very improbable that it will lead to the reversal of the result,” Braga said.
The dispute has drawn comparisons with the aftermath of the 2022 election, when Jair Bolsonaro refused to acknowledge his defeat.
The former president was subsequently sentenced by Brazil’s Supreme Court to 27 years in prison for plotting a coup to remain in power.
Lula’s victory unsettled investors who had positioned themselves for a change of government.
A Tokyo-listed exchange-traded fund tracking Brazil’s Bovespa stock index fell nearly 15 per cent during Asian trading following news of the result.
The Brazilian real was also expected to weaken against the US dollar, with analysts anticipating volatility as markets adjusted to the election outcome.
The victory adds another chapter to Lula’s long political career.
The former metalworker and trade union leader previously served two presidential terms before returning to office after defeating Jair Bolsonaro in 2022.
Lula was imprisoned between 2018 and 2019 on corruption charges that were subsequently overturned, allowing him to resume his political career.
Reacting to his latest victory, left-wing federal lawmaker Erika Hilton, who joined Lula in São Paulo during the vote count, praised the president.
“He is a statesman, a giant,” Hilton told Reuters.
Lula entered the election facing dissatisfaction over rising living costs, corruption scandals associated with his Workers’ Party and concerns about his ability to connect with an evolving workforce.
Brazil’s expanding app-based economy and growing number of informal workers had presented challenges for the veteran politician.
However, pollsters said stronger-than-expected voter turnout helped deliver his victory.
Leonardo Barreto, co-founder of consultancy Think Policy, suggested that voters ultimately preferred Lula’s familiar leadership over the alternative offered by Flavio Bolsonaro.
The election result gives Lula another term in office, although his opponent’s refusal to concede has introduced uncertainty over the immediate political aftermath.