Reunifying Ireland could cost the Irish government as much as €25 billion ($28 billion) in its first year, according to an economic assessment published by Fine Gael, a member of Ireland’s governing coalition.
The analysis, prepared by economist Stephen Kinsella for Fine Gael’s A Blueprint for a Unified Island, estimates that the initial financial burden could range from €3 billion to €25 billion, depending on the political structure adopted and the financial arrangements negotiated with the United Kingdom.
The study examines four possible reunification models, including a unitary state, a federal system, managed integration and a higher-cost scenario involving greater financial responsibilities for Dublin.
Under the most expensive model, annual expenditure associated with reunification could rise to €41.2 billion ($45.92 billion) by the 25th year.
That projection assumes Northern Ireland’s economy grows by 2% annually and that the Irish government takes responsibility for previously accumulated pension liabilities and interest payments on debt.
The assessment identifies negotiations between London and Dublin over the division of financial obligations as a critical factor in determining the eventual cost.
Other major considerations include bringing public-sector salaries and social welfare payments in Northern Ireland into alignment with those in the Republic of Ireland.
The study also raises questions about the long-term financial sustainability of the transition, finding that none of the four models examined would fully repay the borrowing required to finance reunification within 25 years under the assumed annual economic growth rate of 2%.
However, the report cautions that its estimates are illustrative projections rather than definitive forecasts, with actual costs dependent on future economic conditions, political negotiations and policy decisions.
The assessment does not take a position for or against Irish reunification, instead seeking to outline the potential financial implications of different approaches to bringing Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland under a single political framework.