The world is familiar with the Indus Waters Treaty, but few people know that some other water
sources apart from the rivers under this treaty are also getting war-renewed. From the Nile, the
Tigris, and the Euphrates to the Mekong, water is becoming a battle arena. Climate change is
causing rain to disappear in certain parts of the world while making rain excessive in others. The
treaties signed in the past do not have the strength to sustain these changes. It is this gap that will
become the source of future conflicts.
The Nile: A Dam That Created a Split in the Continent
Ethiopia’s Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam has now started its function as the biggest
hydropower project in Africa, with funds mostly coming from Ethiopia. Ethiopia began this
project in 2011 and unveiled it in September 2025. However, while for Ethiopians this dam is an
opportunity for their development, the Egyptians consider this project a potential hazard to their
water supplies.
The two nations have never agreed on an acceptable agreement. Over the past ten years, Egypt’s
strategy was to keep holding the power over the Nile even while lacking ownership of the dam.
This year, other nations intervened in the conflict. The USA has informed Egypt that it is going
to assist it once again in the negotiations and openly support Egypt’s stance. Ethiopia remains
silent. This story is not only about a dam but also about the history of relations between
countries.
The Tigris and Euphrates Rivers: The Challenge of Drought
Iraq is experiencing a severe drought, with rivers in the region drying up. Türkiye has a head
start as it controls most of the water flowing at the source. Approximately 60% of the flow of the
Euphrates and Tigris originates from Türkiye, but it uses only about 29%. Iraq, however,
contributes only about 36% and has consistently asked for more water than it actually receives.
The two countries differ on the legal status of the rivers. Türkiye claims that they are
transboundary rivers, as opposed to international ones, and thus has more freedom to use the
water.
Iraq has taken a different route in recent times. In November 2025, Iraq entered a new agreement
with Türkiye whereby it will pay for water projects funded and built by the Turkish government.
However, civil society refuses to believe that this initiative will be effective, as it only treats the
symptoms of an ongoing problem. An example of civil society action was a declaration issued
earlier this year, which pointed out that agreements signed many years ago were not meant to
provide effective communication between the two countries but only serve formal purposes.
Why the Law Keeps Failing
Transboundary water law is a complicated thing, yet it rests on two simple principles. First of all,
all countries that share a river are entitled to a fair share of the river’s waters. Furthermore, no
country should inflict significant damage on another country. The problem is that no one is
responsible for ensuring the requirements are being followed.
What This Means for Us
Now let’s take a look at the situation in Pakistan. Pakistan is no stranger to what the Nile and the
Tigris have gone through: a downward trend of silt deposition in the Indus, deterioration of
weather patterns through erratic monsoons, and construction of dams on the rivers by upstream
countries. The trend is global in its manifestations: treaties signed in past times tend to break
under the heat of climate change, while mediation from abroad produces results in favour of the
party that the foreign country has historically been on the side of.
The Indus Waters Treaty has been in place for sixty years already. However, it was valid only in
the climate of that time. What is happening now around Cairo, Addis Ababa, Baghdad, and
Istanbul should be seen as what is being prepared for Pakistan. The new water conflicts normally
appear suddenly, but they do not just appear overnight; they need time and a generation of arid
seasons to mature before they become open.