In the near future, what will global powers compete for? There can be no answer to this question other than “critical minerals”. In fact, the foundation of this competition has already been laid.
Critical minerals, naturally occurring elements inside the earth, are unequally distributed throughout the world. Some of these minerals exist in trace amounts, but they still hold great importance for world powers. These minerals, such as Lithium, cobalt, germanium, gallium, and rare earth elements (REEs), are becoming the new foundation of the global economy. Electric vehicles, military hardware, renewable energy, and advanced technologies all depend on these critical minerals. These minerals are not only economically important but also deeply connected to international security and foreign policy.
The supply chain for these minerals consists of mining, processing, manufacturing, and recycling. Extraction (mining) alone does not provide complete strategic power. Converting these minerals into a usable form (the processing) does. This stage is crucial because many states possess minerals but lack the ability and technology to process them, so they depend on other states; this economic dependency makes states strategically vulnerable.
China controls the most strategically important part of this supply chain. 70% of global minerals’ processing power lies with China. It has developed advanced industrial capacity for refining and producing technologies. This rising influence of China in critical minerals geopolitics has even forced the US and other Western countries to search for alternatives. In fact, China used a tit-for-tat policy towards the US regarding these minerals when, in 2022, the US banned semiconductor exports to China and China retaliated by imposing a complete ban on germanium and gallium (used in electronics) exports to the US.
China’s rising dominance poses a great threat to the US, and it has also started to build supply chains outside of China. Pakistan, having gold, copper and other resources, holds great importance here. The US-Pakistan minerals deal in September 2025 is an attempt by the US to reduce dependency on China.
The monopoly of one state over a large part of these essential resources is definitely concerning. China can use this dominance as economic leverage during times of crisis. 100% of the advanced military industry depends on critical minerals. If there is any disruption in the supply of these minerals, the military industry would slow down or halt all operations. That is why these minerals are very critical in international security. As much as it is necessary to dilute China’s dominance, it is very difficult because developing mineral supply chains requires decades of investment, specialised technologies and industrial expertise.
Critical minerals are becoming new instruments of power projection. The rise of mineral diplomacy shows a clear shift in the way states are adopting this transformation. Control over these resources now determines economic and military strength. The geopolitics of critical minerals has also made the Global South the new centre of attention. South American and African states, which were once relatively unimportant, are now gaining relevance in global politics, and resource nationalism is emerging. DRC, Chile, Zimbabwe, and many other states are now actively projecting power through these minerals, though on a small scale. In short, mineral security is becoming national security.
For much of the 20th century, states have been competing for oil and natural gas. This competition is starting to be replaced with a minerals race that will change the global dynamics. The states that tried to sustain themselves are now leading towards a new form of dependency, and that too of minerals. The geopolitics of critical minerals is in fact one of the most important transformations of 21st-century international relations. The competition over these minerals is not simply a struggle over natural resources but a struggle over economic power, security, technology, and global influence. It would not be wrong to say that these minerals are the “new oil of the 21st century”.