Agriculture is a cornerstone of KPK’s economy, providing livelihoods for over 80% of the population. Climate disruptions could destabilize food security and economic stability across the province. Despite being highly comprehensive and structured, the government’s climate action policies have proven ineffective because of low funding and practical constraints. Hence, policies need to be reevaluated to create a more farmer-centric approach and focus on regionally specific areas.
Climatic Effects on Agricultural Productivity in KPK
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is vulnerable to the effects of climate change mentioned above. From red to green, the intensity of hazards decreases. The area highlighted in light green is where Zones C and D lie, also known as the agricultural area of KPK. According to the National Disaster Management Authority’s (NDMA) multi-hazard vulnerability assessment, the districts in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are depicted in the above figure as being vulnerable to climate hazards.
The IPCC’s 2014 Fifth Annual Report warned about extreme weather patterns for mid-latitude regions. Warmer temperatures are expected to cause monsoon rainfall to rise and spread north. There will be less precipitation in arid areas and more in wet areas than previously. Less precipitation in arid areas may lead to droughts, whereas these intense precipitation patterns will hasten glacial melting and cause flash floods.
Agriculture is the primary industry in the Central Valley Plain, Piedmont Plain, and Suleiman Piedmont. Even though agriculture is conducted all over the province, Zone C and Zone D (the lower south) jointly have 1,115,000 hectares of cultivated land (EPA, Govt of KP). These figures demonstrate how much drought has impacted the province’s food security. In the upcoming years, Zones C and D will experience water stress due to rising temperatures and less rainfall in arid regions.
Zone C has a warm, subhumid environment, while Zone D has a hot, dry climate. The region that would be most vulnerable to droughts is Dera Ismail Khan. Despite being a less frequent threat than floods, droughts significantly affect food security, which cannot be disregarded.
Zones C and D, where most agricultural activity occurs, are the most affected by food production. The type and quantity of crops produced will alter as weather patterns change because temperatures fluctuate, and rainfall becomes more unpredictable. Extreme temperatures are unfavorable for healthy crops, and diminishing water supplies will challenge farmers. Additionally, they must contend with regular infestations because of the warmer, humid atmosphere conducive to bug life.
As temperatures rise, more crops can be grown in the north, including cotton, wheat, maize, and rice. Conversely, the Southern Piedmont region and the Central Valley Plain, currently the primary agricultural regions, would experience water shortages due to less rainfall, lowering crop yields. Food security problems will arise in the province due to these developments and natural disasters like droughts and floods, which can totally destroy agricultural fields and crops ready for harvest (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Climate Change Policy, Environmental Protection Agency, Government of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Forestry, Environment & Wildlife Department).
The climate negatively impacts sustainable development and the green revolution. According to Weinberger et al. (2015), sustainable development has three components: environmental integrity, social harmony, and stability. Climate factors such as rainfall and temperature significantly impact agricultural productivity. The entire Rabi crop production in 1991 was 174.6 tons, more than the 83.65 tons produced in 2015, according to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Development Statistics 2014. Additionally, the land use of orchards increased by almost 4,951 hectares between 2014 and 2015, resulting in a decline in the total crop area from 1995 to 2015, decreasing from 128.1 hectares to 49.18 hectares, respectively (Abbas et al.).
KPK’s Climate Change Policy 2022
Approximately 39% of the nation’s GHG emissions stem from agricultural operations, including raising crops and animals. Approximately 83% of KP’s population depends on agriculture and livestock. Various agricultural practices could lower greenhouse gas emissions and lessen the effects of climate change.
The policy encourages modern technology and indigenous agronomic practices that improve soil carbon storage and residue, such as crop rotation and re-vegetation. Tillage management techniques are recommended to minimize erosion and soil disturbance. The promotion of biogas generation and manure digestion is highly emphasized. Implementing integrated nutrient management approaches to decrease on-site emissions by lowering leaching and volatile losses increases nitrogen usage efficiency through precision farming and optimizes fertilizer application timing.
The policy also highlights the need to manage water in rice fields to decrease methane emissions from agricultural land and promote low-water delta rice types and fish/rice farming. Lastly, the policy focuses on allocating funds and incentives to farmers to mitigate the risk of loss and damage caused by climate change (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Climate Change Policy 2022).
Recommendations
One of the most significant issues is implementing existing laws and policies to ensure that farmers who adopt climate-smart practices, such as crop rotation or water irrigation methods, can be given tax incentives. Governments commonly employ financial incentives (such as subsidies and tax credits) to encourage the development and diffusion of new technology. While economic costs are often larger than those of the instruments described above, they are frequently important to overcoming hurdles.
Lack of resources and budgetary constraints severely hinder Pakistan’s ability to implement climate change policy. Pakistan’s fiscal constraints and competing development objectives result in insufficient support for climate change efforts and projects. Lack of funding results in underinvestment in areas such as climate-resilient infrastructure, renewable energy, and technological breakthroughs.