CIA Suggests COVID-19 Likely Originated from Lab Leak, Holds Low Confidence in Assessment

The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) has updated its assessment regarding the origins of COVID-19, now stating that a laboratory leak in China is “more likely” than natural transmission from animals. This conclusion is held with “low confidence,” indicating that the evidence is not definitive. The reassessment was completed before the appointment of John Ratcliffe as CIA director and was based on a new analysis of existing intelligence ordered by former director William Burns. The CIA acknowledges that both the lab-leak and natural origin scenarios remain plausible. This shift aligns the CIA with other U.S. agencies, such as the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Energy, which have also supported the lab-leak theory with varying degrees of confidence.