As Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Pakistan concludes, it undoubtedly leaves behind strengthened diplomatic bonds and ambitious promises. However, can these promises turn into reality, and how will this cooperation fare in the global context?
During the historic visit, Pakistan and Azerbaijan agreed to boost bilateral trade to $2 billion from the current figure of less than $100 million in various areas of mutual interest, which highlights a commitment to mutual growth. Moreover, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif hopes that during his visit to Azerbaijan in November this year, the two sides will be ready to sign a number of agreements.
However, this ambitious goal makes one wonder whether these investments could be realized, especially when no details have been shared regarding the projects that will emerge from this newfound commitment. President Aliyev’s visit to the National Aerospace Science and Technology Park in Islamabad points to the potential for collaboration in the defense sector, which can open doors for a strategic partnership in the field, hence enhancing both country’s defense capabilities.
But will these collaborations withstand the global geopolitical pressures, and whether the strategic interests of both the nations align over time are some of the things to ponder over. The two nations are known to have each other’s back in the international arena. Pakistan’s continuous support for Azerbaijan on important issues like the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Azerbaijan’s support for the Kashmir cause highlight a deep-rooted alliance. Symbolizing that relationship, President Asif Ali Zardari hosted a state reception for the visiting dignitary and his team, signifying political solidarity between the two countries.
Another challenge will be to maintain a joint stance and simultaneously keep their relationships with other countries unstrained
During a meeting between the two leaders on the second day of the visit, President Zardari admired Baku’s urban development as a model for Pakistan, hinting at another area of potential cooperation. It may be mentioned here that Baku is rich in energy resources, and can prove to be an important partner for Pakistan in the energy sector, especially at a time when the latter continues to struggle with fulfilling its energy needs amid soaring prices of crude and gas in the international market.
However, mere political goodwill is not going to solve the problem. These political ties need to be transformed into sustained economic and strategic partnerships. Both the presidents also discussed the upcoming 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) to be held in Baku. Making good use of the occasion, President Zardari made a pitch regarding the Gwadar Port, and suggested that Azerbaijan and Central Asian countries could benefit from it, with the former, being a transcontinental country, acting as a bridge between Asia and Europe.
On the sidelines of the visit, 15 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) were signed by the two nations, related to trade, commerce, tourism, minerals, science and technology, law, justice, and cultural exchange programs. The most notable among them are the Preferential Trade Agreement (PTA) and the Transit Trade Agreement (TTA), which are solely aimed at accelerating bilateral trade. The agreements will surely lay the groundwork for a comprehensive strategic partnership between Islamabad and Baky. Azeri officials also showed interest in Pakistan’s oil, gas, and mining sectors.
Other areas of potential collaboration included information technology and artificial intelligence. President Aliyev’s visit to Pakistan has indeed set the stage for enhanced cooperation and strategic partnerships. But being realistic, the commitments made are very ambitious. If realized, they could significantly boost bilateral relations, but achieving those results is not going to be an easy task.
The first question is going to be “how?”. There has been no announcement as to how both countries are going to navigate their economic challenges in order to achieve the $2 billion investment target, or what measures will be put in place to ensure that these investments materialize. Looking at how agreements related to the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline, also known as the Peace Pipeline, have been catching dust for years, and hopes of importing crude from Russia dashed to ground, will Pakistan and Azerbaijan be able to manage their strategic partnership amid global geopolitical complexities?
It will also be a difficult task for the two sides to maintain a joint stance and simultaneously keep their relationships with other countries unstrained. Moreover, political stability will also be an important factor for taking this partnership forward. Any ‘undesirable’ change in the political landscape of either country can put these plans in jeopardy.