The Gulf has been totally dependent on an oil-based economy, from being the largest contributor to global oil and gas reserves to oil production and exports.
Simultaneously, it has maintained a regional diplomatic position to protect its interests as well as vouch for peace and stability for the fellow Muslim nations. Yet, as true as it is that the Gulf understands where the world is headed, the future won’t mirror today, and there is a need to diversify and accelerate investment, partnerships, and strategic acquisitions in non-oil sectors. The question, though, remains: given the region’s location and climate, whether such a move toward other industries would be durable. And if not, are there still more alternatives to explore?
Qatar has long been an active mediator in the Palestine-Israel conflict; Saudi Arabia has set clear markers to work towards a lasting Palestine solution if it is to agree to the Abraham Accords, while in the recent US-Iran conflict, most Gulf countries have sought restraint and a diplomatic solution despite being attacked on their own facilities as well. Not only do they sense a mood shift in the US’s security claims – when there came silence from Washington when Emirati bases were being attacked by Iran – but they need regional peace for the protection of their own oil-based economy.
Even the collapse of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria in 2024 has brought positive sentiments among Arabs to strengthen ties with the new Syrian government. Saudi Arabia and Qatar paid off Syria’s outstanding debt to the World Bank in 2025, and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman effectively arranged a meeting between Trump and Syrian President Sharaa, leading to the lifting of most American sanctions on the country.
Regional cooperation per se? A regional bloc (including Iran), too far? Israel’s influence in the region is an inevitability, which is clear from its treatment of international borders and national integrity. Either a strategic alliance between Arab nations and their antagonists like Iran and Iraq were to become a reality, as is hinted at from the way Gulf nations have still tried to push conflicting sides to reach a peace treaty between the US and Iran, even when it could’ve pushed the US to the other side otherwise, regional cooperation does seem a suitable course.
However, diplomacy is one facet of the Gulf’s exercises globally. However, it has a major concern: the growing shift of the world towards cleaner sources of energy. The Gulf realises that the future won’t be entirely dependent on its oil reserves, and so the UAE is catching up to solar and wind power, Saudi Arab is pushing forth its NEOM Green Hydrogen Project, while there is a clear attraction towards AI, fintech, and cloud services, to set up data centres in their part of the world to keep its role as a global connector intact, as is evident historically through its airlines, business hubs, and strategic routes. Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 is a telling detail. Its fundamental aim is to lower dependence on oil and increase dependence on tourism, foreign investment, and non-oil trade.
More importantly, oil revenues are declining as the major Saudi client, the US, seems to have found its own oil haven on Venezuelan soil. Oil is no longer a dependable source of income, nor is it going to be the world’s lifeline in the future.
Do we not see how Saudi Aramco has displayed itself all over the FIFA World Cup this year as a major corporate sponsor? There is a Saudi presence in the global entertainment sphere. Saudi Arabia is even set to host the 2034 FIFA World Cup, expected to bring in tourism, investment, and global recognition in diversified fields as opposed to being just an oil-exporting nation.
And what’s the paradox still? Major Gulf food imports, desalination expenditure, and air conditioning expenses (due to extreme weather) rely on oil revenues. If that is compromised, or even if the new diversified fields do not prove as durable as they currently appear, it might become increasingly difficult to cover these expenses otherwise. Foreign investment is much needed, but if that is harmed, especially investor skepticism due to attacks straight into Dubai in the recent US-Iran conflict, the guarantee of a safe and lasting profit will be under scrutiny.
Even tourism would be at a standstill. Let me overthink a bit more, though it is still far-fetched, that national security would be at peril should cyberattacks be carried out on the data centres that the world is so obsessed with trying to build right now. I’m not going into quantum computers at the moment; that opens another security question. But these are real questions to ask. And maybe the Middle East conflict has just started; lasting peace is still fragile as it has always been.