India is contemplating a significant escalation in its use of the Indus River system waters, potentially reducing the flow into Pakistan. This move follows a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir on April 22, 2025, which India attributes to Pakistan. In response, India suspended its participation in the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), a long-standing agreement governing water-sharing between the two nations.
One major proposal under consideration involves doubling the length of the Ranbir Canal on the Chenab River from 60 km to 120 km. This expansion would increase water diversion from approximately 40 to 150 cubic meters per second. While India is permitted limited use of the Chenab’s waters for irrigation, such an expansion could significantly impact Pakistan, which relies on the Indus system for about 80% of its agriculture and nearly all its hydropower.
Pakistani officials have denounced India’s suspension of the treaty as unlawful, asserting that the IWT remains in force. Islamabad has warned that any attempt to stop or divert the flow of water belonging to Pakistan would be considered an “act of war.”
Experts note that while India’s infrastructure currently limits its ability to drastically alter water flows, even minor changes in water availability or timing could have severe consequences for Pakistan’s agriculture and energy sectors, especially during low-flow seasons.
The situation underscores the fragility of the Indus Waters Treaty amid escalating geopolitical tensions and highlights the critical importance of water resources in the region.